Is Hyper-Casual Dead?(Part1)

Insights and Analysis

Over the past two years, the decline of Hyper-Casual games has become a hot topic. Despite the genre’s massive growth and market dominance in 2022, Voodoo’s announcement at a major conference that Hyper-Casual games are fading has reshaped investment strategies and game development. At PGC London 2023, Alex Shea, Head of Publishing at Voodoo, delivered a speech. One key takeaway from his talk was the assertion that Hyper-Casual is dead.

https://www.pocketgamer.biz/voodoos-alex-shea-hypercasual-is-dead/

We became excited and set out on a mission to track this topic more closely that is Hyper-Casual dead or not? Although data access in the hyper-casual gaming sector is limited, we have uncovered interesting findings in this series of articles titled “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?”

In this part, we analyze AppMagic data to provide a clearer understanding of Hyper-Casual genres games and gaming trends. The article highlights key findings, including outliers that could mislead market perception. Identifying and addressing these outliers helps avoid any misconceptions about the actual trends in the Hyper-Casual market.

Marketing Analysis of AppMagic Data (2022-2024)

Our analysis of AppMagic between 2022 and 2024 provides valuable insights into total downloads and revenue across different game genres. While this data offers a solid foundation, obtaining more comprehensive statics on in-app purchases (IAPs) and ad performance by genre would allow for a more precise and thorough analysis. For now, in this part we have focused on what was available in APPMagic, but we recognize the need for deeper data to refine our understanding of trends in this market and growth opportunities within each game category.

This understandings will help shape our future marketing strategies and provide clearer directions for targeting in the genre the Hyper-Casual games.

Revenue and downloads HC-games

Here, we provide insights into the revenue and download statistics of Hyper-Casual games, as reported by AppMagic in different quarters.

Market trends Analysis

To better investigate and accurately analyze marketing behaviors, countries are categorized into three groups: T1w, T1E and T1w& T1E. These categories according Appmagic present the top-performing countries in terms of revenue and downloads and user acquisition for mobile games. The share of each quarter in the top charts are accessible.

Tier-1 East (5 countries)

In the T1East in eastern regions based on their market potential, economic strength, or strategic importance (includes countries like China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and Singapore)

Tier-1 West (6 countries)

T1W refers to high-revenue countries in western regions.

In the Teir-1 west market (which usually includes countries like U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, France, and Australia) from Q3-2022 to Q2-2024.

T1w & T1 E (50 countries)

This includes both T1w and T1E countries offering a comprehensive view of global markets by both western and eastern countries.

If you’re interested in detailed information about downloads and revenue across each category, click to the charts above for more insights.

Total Revenue and Downloads

Download Trend in Hyper-Casual Market

In this analysis, we take a closer look at the ups and downs in revenue and downloads in the hyper-casual market, using data from AppMagic from Q4-2021 to Q2-2024.

We have collected and thoroughly summarized data from AppMagic, providing us with valuable comprehensions into the marketing of Hyper-Casual games. As mentioned earlier, there are fluctuations in the Hyper-Casual market, and the reasons for these will be analyzed in the next series.

The period from Q1-2022 to Q2-2022 was a period of sharp growth for Hyper-Casual games in downloads. This may have been influenced by the impact of the coronavirus or other factors, which will be elaborated in detail in upcoming articles on Hyper-Casual is dead?!!!

This chart shows total downloads over several quarters, peaking at 4.2 billion in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 after the effects of phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4 billion, with most quarters recording figures close to the average of 3.76 million. Only a few quarters showed slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million. Such events can distort trends and lead to misconceptions about user engagement and market dynamics, which will be analyzed more closely below.

Variance in Hyper-Casual Market

Here we will the calculate the variance in Hyper-Casual games market to understand fluctuations in downloads identifying patterns and stability changes over the eleven month period.

The average downloads during this period were approximately 30.67 million, providing a tool for comparison. Notably, the first six months recorded higher download numbers, while the last five months saw a decrease. This raises the question: Is hyper-casual games dead?

The variance of 0.088 helps us assess the data dispersion relative to the mean. This low variance indicates that the download numbers have remained close to the average, suggesting there hasn’t been significant fluctuation across quarters. Most download counts are clustered near the average, implying that the market has demonstrated relative stability without drastic or sudden changes.

In fact, most quarters recorded downloads close to the average of 3.76 million, with only a few quarters showing slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million.

Revenue Trend in Hyper-Casual Market:

Despite a decrease in download numbers, this market has experienced steady growth in revenue. The revenue chart shows a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1 and Q2 of 2024), where a sharp increase is evident.

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, including an expanding customer base and new strategies, such as the introduction of hybrid-casual games.

The revenue chart reveals a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1-2024 and Q2-2024), where there has been a sharp increase However, due to limited data in AppMagic for Q4-2022 and Q1- 2023, we show these data with a dash line —-.
In Q4 2023, it experienced growth of approximately 29%, marking a significant increase compared to previous quarters and this increase continued through to Q2 2024, according to this source.

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, such as an expanding customer base, the release of new products (including hybrid-casual games), or more effective marketing strategies. Given these possibilities and estimates, it’s essential to focus more closely on this market.

Data Analysis of the Past Two Years

Downloads- Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Total downloads of hyper-casual games fluctuated from Q2-2023 to Q2-2024. Starting at approximately 3.67 billion in Q2-2023, downloads dipped to about 3.18 billion in Q1-2024, before rebounding to around 3.70 billion in Q4-2023. By Q2-2024, downloads settled at approximately 3.38 billion, indicating market volatility but signs of recovery.

Revenue – Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Consistent revenue increased over five quarters, despite a decline following a sharp rise. From Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, total revenue shows a promising upward trend. Starting at $53 million, it reached nearly $97 million by Q2 2024. This consistent growth reflects effective monetization strategies within the hyper-casual gaming sector, indicating a healthy market demand and potential for further revenue increases.

Conclusion:

This article, which is explored from AppMagic, part of the “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?” series, highlights a significant peak in downloads at 4.2B in 2022, influenced by phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4B. From Q2-2023 to Q2-2024, downloads fluctuated, reflecting market volatility but signs of recovery in download. Revenue, however, showed consistent growth, rising from $53 million in Q2-2023 to nearly $97 million in Q2-2024. This indicates effective monetization strategies in the hyper-casual sector.

Considering the behavior of hyper-casual downloads and revenue as a linear function, it reminds us of linear fitting, where removing outliers improves accuracy.

So, is Hyper-Casual dead? Probably not. Stay tuned for Part 2 , where we dive deeper into hyper-casual gaming, exploring the Dunning-Kruger effect.

We are excited for you to share your thoughts and join the discussion! Together, we can dive deeper into market insights within this genre and make even greater discoveries.