Category Archives: Marketing

Insights and Analysis

In previous article (part1), we analyzed AppMagic statics from 2021 to Q2 2024, highlighting a sharp increase in the Hyper-casual games download during 2022, followed by a fluctuated decline from Q3 2022 onwards. This trend has raised concerns about the future of Hyper-Casual games.

According our guess, this trend resembles the Dunning-Kruger effect, a phenomenon where individuals and companies don’t aware about this phycology phenomenon. in this article we will discuss about this phenomenon and possible similarity of this with growth and decrease of market in Hyper-Casual games.

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

This phenomenon first described by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, influences various fields, including business, politics, and medicine. This phenomenon explains how individuals and companies with low ability at a task overestimate their skills, significantly impacting individuals and business, especially when launching new products or concepts.

This effect is caused by a complex combination of cognitive factors, primarily a lack of metacognition- the ability to reflect on one’s own thinking and understanding. This may also fail to recognize exciting risks, making suboptimal outcomes more likely.

For instance, the rise of digital currency and blockchain technology led to many new ventures. However, many of these businesses failed due to a lack of knowledge and overconfidence, often ignoring professional advice.

Dunning-Kruger in Hyper-Casual games

In this section, we will discuss that phenomena in decline of downloads of Hyper-Casual games, which has led to the perception that Hyper-casual is dead.
Statics from AppMagic show that during 2021, after to COVID-19 pandemic, users and players spent a significant amount of money on mobile games and Hyper-Casual games during home quarantine. On the other hand, many businesses shut down, leading to significant increase in the number of developers publishers and investors in Hyper-Casual games. The number of Hyper-Casual games released increased tenfold compared to previous year.

This surge reached to as the “peak mount stupid”. Due to uncontrolled growth, as seen in chart, downlow’s volume suddenly decreased (according to the data in part1) , like to a stock market crash. Subsequently, HC releases and downloads in Hyper-Casual games decreased sharply, leading to what is known as the “valley of despair and disappointment”. This has led some to assert that Hyper-Casual is dying. In this phase, every aspect seems adverse, and publishers or developers may claim that this genre is neither useful nor profitable. This caused many unaware developers to abandon their games, although, according to data from AppMagic, revenue has shown stable growth.

Future Outlook

As mentioned in our previous article, it is likely that the Hyper-Casual market would experience stable share, in line with the Dunning-Kruger effect.

combining this trend with the Dunning-Kruger theory suggests that the genre will eventually experience market sustainability. If developers become aware of their deficiencies of development of their games, and continue in this area, growth will continue its gentle upward trend. It is unlikely that the trend (Hyper-Casual games) will disappear entirely.

This behavior is social trend in many phenomena and the frequency of several other phenomena, such as COVID-19, has led multiplying the frequency of this story.

Conclusion

In major markets, various phenomena can significantly impact market share. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for evaluating trends, predicting challenges, and safeguarding against potential issues. It seems during COVID-19 period, players delved deeply into the Hyper-Casual games because the changes of their lifestyle and this led to a thrilling in Hype-Casual games.

Meanwhile, investors and operators may intentionally or unintentionally influence these events to steer the market in their desired direction, as seen with companies like Voodoo, which declared that Hyper-Casual games are dead.

This story is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which would eventually reach maturity and growth. It is likely that the market share of hyper-casual games will return to its steady growth trend. However, it is more likely that this day is not today.

In this series of articles, we will explore various topics in each part to address the question of whether Hyper-Casual is dead? In future articles, we will also examine the market share of Hyper-Casual games in the mobile gaming market.

 Share your thoughts and join the discussion to make even deeper discoveries. according to these data is it your opinion that Hyper-Casual is dead and have lost their appeal?

Insights and Analysis

Over the past two years, the decline of Hyper-Casual games has become a hot topic. Despite the genre’s massive growth and market dominance in 2022, Voodoo’s announcement at a major conference that Hyper-Casual games are fading has reshaped investment strategies and game development. At PGC London 2023, Alex Shea, Head of Publishing at Voodoo, delivered a speech. One key takeaway from his talk was the assertion that Hyper-Casual is dead.

https://www.pocketgamer.biz/voodoos-alex-shea-hypercasual-is-dead/

We became excited and set out on a mission to track this topic more closely that is Hyper-Casual dead or not? Although data access in the hyper-casual gaming sector is limited, we have uncovered interesting findings in this series of articles titled “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?”

In this part, we analyze AppMagic data to provide a clearer understanding of Hyper-Casual genres games and gaming trends. The article highlights key findings, including outliers that could mislead market perception. Identifying and addressing these outliers helps avoid any misconceptions about the actual trends in the Hyper-Casual market.

Marketing Analysis of AppMagic Data (2022-2024)

Our analysis of AppMagic between 2022 and 2024 provides valuable insights into total downloads and revenue across different game genres. While this data offers a solid foundation, obtaining more comprehensive statics on in-app purchases (IAPs) and ad performance by genre would allow for a more precise and thorough analysis. For now, in this part we have focused on what was available in APPMagic, but we recognize the need for deeper data to refine our understanding of trends in this market and growth opportunities within each game category.

This understandings will help shape our future marketing strategies and provide clearer directions for targeting in the genre the Hyper-Casual games.

Revenue and downloads HC-games

Here, we provide insights into the revenue and download statistics of Hyper-Casual games, as reported by AppMagic in different quarters.

Market trends Analysis

To better investigate and accurately analyze marketing behaviors, countries are categorized into three groups: T1w, T1E and T1w& T1E. These categories according Appmagic present the top-performing countries in terms of revenue and downloads and user acquisition for mobile games. The share of each quarter in the top charts are accessible.

Tier-1 East (5 countries)

In the T1East in eastern regions based on their market potential, economic strength, or strategic importance (includes countries like China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and Singapore)

Tier-1 West (6 countries)

T1W refers to high-revenue countries in western regions.

In the Teir-1 west market (which usually includes countries like U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, France, and Australia) from Q3-2022 to Q2-2024.

T1w & T1 E (50 countries)

This includes both T1w and T1E countries offering a comprehensive view of global markets by both western and eastern countries.

If you’re interested in detailed information about downloads and revenue across each category, click to the charts above for more insights.

Total Revenue and Downloads

Download Trend in Hyper-Casual Market

In this analysis, we take a closer look at the ups and downs in revenue and downloads in the hyper-casual market, using data from AppMagic from Q4-2021 to Q2-2024.

We have collected and thoroughly summarized data from AppMagic, providing us with valuable comprehensions into the marketing of Hyper-Casual games. As mentioned earlier, there are fluctuations in the Hyper-Casual market, and the reasons for these will be analyzed in the next series.

The period from Q1-2022 to Q2-2022 was a period of sharp growth for Hyper-Casual games in downloads. This may have been influenced by the impact of the coronavirus or other factors, which will be elaborated in detail in upcoming articles on Hyper-Casual is dead?!!!

This chart shows total downloads over several quarters, peaking at 4.2 billion in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 after the effects of phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4 billion, with most quarters recording figures close to the average of 3.76 million. Only a few quarters showed slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million. Such events can distort trends and lead to misconceptions about user engagement and market dynamics, which will be analyzed more closely below.

Variance in Hyper-Casual Market

Here we will the calculate the variance in Hyper-Casual games market to understand fluctuations in downloads identifying patterns and stability changes over the eleven month period.

The average downloads during this period were approximately 30.67 million, providing a tool for comparison. Notably, the first six months recorded higher download numbers, while the last five months saw a decrease. This raises the question: Is hyper-casual games dead?

The variance of 0.088 helps us assess the data dispersion relative to the mean. This low variance indicates that the download numbers have remained close to the average, suggesting there hasn’t been significant fluctuation across quarters. Most download counts are clustered near the average, implying that the market has demonstrated relative stability without drastic or sudden changes.

In fact, most quarters recorded downloads close to the average of 3.76 million, with only a few quarters showing slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million.

Revenue Trend in Hyper-Casual Market:

Despite a decrease in download numbers, this market has experienced steady growth in revenue. The revenue chart shows a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1 and Q2 of 2024), where a sharp increase is evident.

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, including an expanding customer base and new strategies, such as the introduction of hybrid-casual games.

The revenue chart reveals a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1-2024 and Q2-2024), where there has been a sharp increase However, due to limited data in AppMagic for Q4-2022 and Q1- 2023, we show these data with a dash line —-.
In Q4 2023, it experienced growth of approximately 29%, marking a significant increase compared to previous quarters and this increase continued through to Q2 2024, according to this source.

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, such as an expanding customer base, the release of new products (including hybrid-casual games), or more effective marketing strategies. Given these possibilities and estimates, it’s essential to focus more closely on this market.

Data Analysis of the Past Two Years

Downloads- Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Total downloads of hyper-casual games fluctuated from Q2-2023 to Q2-2024. Starting at approximately 3.67 billion in Q2-2023, downloads dipped to about 3.18 billion in Q1-2024, before rebounding to around 3.70 billion in Q4-2023. By Q2-2024, downloads settled at approximately 3.38 billion, indicating market volatility but signs of recovery.

Revenue – Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Consistent revenue increased over five quarters, despite a decline following a sharp rise. From Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, total revenue shows a promising upward trend. Starting at $53 million, it reached nearly $97 million by Q2 2024. This consistent growth reflects effective monetization strategies within the hyper-casual gaming sector, indicating a healthy market demand and potential for further revenue increases.

Conclusion:

This article, which is explored from AppMagic, part of the “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?” series, highlights a significant peak in downloads at 4.2B in 2022, influenced by phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4B. From Q2-2023 to Q2-2024, downloads fluctuated, reflecting market volatility but signs of recovery in download. Revenue, however, showed consistent growth, rising from $53 million in Q2-2023 to nearly $97 million in Q2-2024. This indicates effective monetization strategies in the hyper-casual sector.

Considering the behavior of hyper-casual downloads and revenue as a linear function, it reminds us of linear fitting, where removing outliers improves accuracy.

So, is Hyper-Casual dead? Probably not. Stay tuned for Part 2 , where we dive deeper into hyper-casual gaming, exploring the Dunning-Kruger effect.

We are excited for you to share your thoughts and join the discussion! Together, we can dive deeper into market insights within this genre and make even greater discoveries.