Insights and Analysis

In previous article (part1), we analyzed AppMagic statics from 2021 to Q2 2024, highlighting a sharp increase in the Hyper-casual games download during 2022, followed by a fluctuated decline from Q3 2022 onwards. This trend has raised concerns about the future of Hyper-Casual games.

According our guess, this trend resembles the Dunning-Kruger effect, a phenomenon where individuals and companies don’t aware about this phycology phenomenon. in this article we will discuss about this phenomenon and possible similarity of this with growth and decrease of market in Hyper-Casual games.

Dunning-Kruger Effect in hype casual games

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

This phenomenon first described by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, influences various fields, including business, politics, and medicine. This phenomenon explains how individuals and companies with low ability at a task overestimate their skills, significantly impacting individuals and business, especially when launching new products or concepts.

This effect is caused by a complex combination of cognitive factors, primarily a lack of metacognition- the ability to reflect on one’s own thinking and understanding. This may also fail to recognize exciting risks, making suboptimal outcomes more likely.

For instance, the rise of digital currency and blockchain technology led to many new ventures. However, many of these businesses failed due to a lack of knowledge and overconfidence, often ignoring professional advice.

Dunning-Kruger in Hyper-Casual games

In this section, we will discuss that phenomena in decline of downloads of Hyper-Casual games, which has led to the perception that Hyper-casual is dead.
Statics from AppMagic show that during 2021, after to COVID-19 pandemic, users and players spent a significant amount of money on mobile games and Hyper-Casual games during home quarantine. On the other hand, many businesses shut down, leading to significant increase in the number of developers publishers and investors in Hyper-Casual games. The number of Hyper-Casual games released increased tenfold compared to previous year.

The rate and number of hype casual releases

This surge reached to as the “peak mount stupid”. Due to uncontrolled growth, as seen in chart, downlow’s volume suddenly decreased (according to the data in part1) , like to a stock market crash. Subsequently, HC releases and downloads in Hyper-Casual games decreased sharply, leading to what is known as the “valley of despair and disappointment”. This has led some to assert that Hyper-Casual is dying. In this phase, every aspect seems adverse, and publishers or developers may claim that this genre is neither useful nor profitable. This caused many unaware developers to abandon their games, although, according to data from AppMagic, revenue has shown stable growth.

Future Outlook

As mentioned in our previous article, it is likely that the Hyper-Casual market would experience stable share, in line with the Dunning-Kruger effect.

combining this trend with the Dunning-Kruger theory suggests that the genre will eventually experience market sustainability. If developers become aware of their deficiencies of development of their games, and continue in this area, growth will continue its gentle upward trend. It is unlikely that the trend (Hyper-Casual games) will disappear entirely.

Dunning-Kruger Effect in market in hype casual games

This behavior is social trend in many phenomena and the frequency of several other phenomena, such as COVID-19, has led multiplying the frequency of this story.

Conclusion

In major markets, various phenomena can significantly impact market share. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for evaluating trends, predicting challenges, and safeguarding against potential issues. It seems during COVID-19 period, players delved deeply into the Hyper-Casual games because the changes of their lifestyle and this led to a thrilling in Hype-Casual games.

Meanwhile, investors and operators may intentionally or unintentionally influence these events to steer the market in their desired direction, as seen with companies like Voodoo, which declared that Hyper-Casual games are dead.

This story is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which would eventually reach maturity and growth. It is likely that the market share of hyper-casual games will return to its steady growth trend. However, it is more likely that this day is not today.

In this series of articles, we will explore various topics in each part to address the question of whether Hyper-Casual is dead? In future articles, we will also examine the market share of Hyper-Casual games in the mobile gaming market.

 Share your thoughts and join the discussion to make even deeper discoveries. according to these data is it your opinion that Hyper-Casual is dead and have lost their appeal?


Insights and Analysis

Over the past two years, the decline of Hyper-Casual games has become a hot topic. Despite the genre’s massive growth and market dominance in 2022, Voodoo’s announcement at a major conference that Hyper-Casual games are fading has reshaped investment strategies and game development. At PGC London 2023, Alex Shea, Head of Publishing at Voodoo, delivered a speech. One key takeaway from his talk was the assertion that Hyper-Casual is dead.

https://www.pocketgamer.biz/voodoos-alex-shea-hypercasual-is-dead/

We became excited and set out on a mission to track this topic more closely that is Hyper-Casual dead or not? Although data access in the hyper-casual gaming sector is limited, we have uncovered interesting findings in this series of articles titled “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?”

In this part, we analyze AppMagic data to provide a clearer understanding of Hyper-Casual genres games and gaming trends. The article highlights key findings, including outliers that could mislead market perception. Identifying and addressing these outliers helps avoid any misconceptions about the actual trends in the Hyper-Casual market.

Marketing Analysis of AppMagic Data (2022-2024)

Our analysis of AppMagic between 2022 and 2024 provides valuable insights into total downloads and revenue across different game genres. While this data offers a solid foundation, obtaining more comprehensive statics on in-app purchases (IAPs) and ad performance by genre would allow for a more precise and thorough analysis. For now, in this part we have focused on what was available in APPMagic, but we recognize the need for deeper data to refine our understanding of trends in this market and growth opportunities within each game category.

This understandings will help shape our future marketing strategies and provide clearer directions for targeting in the genre the Hyper-Casual games.

Revenue and downloads HC-games

Here, we provide insights into the revenue and download statistics of Hyper-Casual games, as reported by AppMagic in different quarters.

Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q3-2022
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q3-2022
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q4-2022
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q4-2022
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q1-2023
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q1-2023
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q2-2023
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q2-2023
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q3-2023
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q3-2023
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q4-2023
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q4-2023
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q1-2024
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q1-2024
Revenue and Downloads for Hyper-Casual Games in Q2-2024
Revenue and Downloads
Hyper-Casual games
Q2-2024

To better investigate and accurately analyze marketing behaviors, countries are categorized into three groups: T1w, T1E and T1w& T1E. These categories according Appmagic present the top-performing countries in terms of revenue and downloads and user acquisition for mobile games. The share of each quarter in the top charts are accessible.

Tier-1 East (5 countries)

In the T1East in eastern regions based on their market potential, economic strength, or strategic importance (includes countries like China, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, and Singapore)

Tier-1 West (6 countries)

T1W refers to high-revenue countries in western regions.

In the Teir-1 west market (which usually includes countries like U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, France, and Australia) from Q3-2022 to Q2-2024.

T1w & T1 E (50 countries)

This includes both T1w and T1E countries offering a comprehensive view of global markets by both western and eastern countries.


If you’re interested in detailed information about downloads and revenue across each category, click to the charts above for more insights.

Total Revenue and Downloads

Download Trend in Hyper-Casual Market

In this analysis, we take a closer look at the ups and downs in revenue and downloads in the hyper-casual market, using data from AppMagic from Q4-2021 to Q2-2024.

Total Download- Hype-Casual games- Appmagic
Total Download- Hype-Casual games- Appmagic

We have collected and thoroughly summarized data from AppMagic, providing us with valuable comprehensions into the marketing of Hyper-Casual games. As mentioned earlier, there are fluctuations in the Hyper-Casual market, and the reasons for these will be analyzed in the next series.

The period from Q1-2022 to Q2-2022 was a period of sharp growth for Hyper-Casual games in downloads. This may have been influenced by the impact of the coronavirus or other factors, which will be elaborated in detail in upcoming articles on Hyper-Casual is dead?!!!

This chart shows total downloads over several quarters, peaking at 4.2 billion in Q1 and Q2 of 2022 after the effects of phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4 billion, with most quarters recording figures close to the average of 3.76 million. Only a few quarters showed slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million. Such events can distort trends and lead to misconceptions about user engagement and market dynamics, which will be analyzed more closely below.

Variance in Hyper-Casual Market

Here we will the calculate the variance in Hyper-Casual games market to understand fluctuations in downloads identifying patterns and stability changes over the eleven month period.

The average downloads during this period were approximately 30.67 million, providing a tool for comparison. Notably, the first six months recorded higher download numbers, while the last five months saw a decrease. This raises the question: Is hyper-casual games dead?

Variance Hyper-Casual downloads
Variance Hyper-Casual downloads

The variance of 0.088 helps us assess the data dispersion relative to the mean. This low variance indicates that the download numbers have remained close to the average, suggesting there hasn’t been significant fluctuation across quarters. Most download counts are clustered near the average, implying that the market has demonstrated relative stability without drastic or sudden changes.

In fact, most quarters recorded downloads close to the average of 3.76 million, with only a few quarters showing slightly higher peaks around 4.2 million or lower dips around 3.2 million.

Revenue Trend in Hyper-Casual Market:

Despite a decrease in download numbers, this market has experienced steady growth in revenue. The revenue chart shows a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1 and Q2 of 2024), where a sharp increase is evident.

Total revenue- Hype-Casual games- Appmagic
Total revenue- Hype-Casual games- Appmagic

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, including an expanding customer base and new strategies, such as the introduction of hybrid-casual games.

The revenue chart reveals a general upward trend, particularly in the last two quarters (Q1-2024 and Q2-2024), where there has been a sharp increase However, due to limited data in AppMagic for Q4-2022 and Q1- 2023, we show these data with a dash line —-.
In Q4 2023, it experienced growth of approximately 29%, marking a significant increase compared to previous quarters and this increase continued through to Q2 2024, according to this source.

This substantial growth may be attributed to various factors, such as an expanding customer base, the release of new products (including hybrid-casual games), or more effective marketing strategies. Given these possibilities and estimates, it’s essential to focus more closely on this market.

Data Analysis of the Past Two Years

Downloads- Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Total downloads of hyper-casual games fluctuated from Q2-2023 to Q2-2024. Starting at approximately 3.67 billion in Q2-2023, downloads dipped to about 3.18 billion in Q1-2024, before rebounding to around 3.70 billion in Q4-2023. By Q2-2024, downloads settled at approximately 3.38 billion, indicating market volatility but signs of recovery.

Revenue – Q2-2023 to Q2-2024

Consistent revenue increased over five quarters, despite a decline following a sharp rise. From Q2 2023 to Q2 2024, total revenue shows a promising upward trend. Starting at $53 million, it reached nearly $97 million by Q2 2024. This consistent growth reflects effective monetization strategies within the hyper-casual gaming sector, indicating a healthy market demand and potential for further revenue increases.

Conclusion:

This article, which is explored from AppMagic, part of the “Is Hyper-Casual Dead?” series, highlights a significant peak in downloads at 4.2B in 2022, influenced by phenomena like COVID-19. Afterward, downloads stabilized around 3-4B. From Q2-2023 to Q2-2024, downloads fluctuated, reflecting market volatility but signs of recovery in download. Revenue, however, showed consistent growth, rising from $53 million in Q2-2023 to nearly $97 million in Q2-2024. This indicates effective monetization strategies in the hyper-casual sector.

Considering the behavior of hyper-casual downloads and revenue as a linear function, it reminds us of linear fitting, where removing outliers improves accuracy.

So, is Hyper-Casual dead? Probably not. Stay tuned for Part 2 , where we dive deeper into hyper-casual gaming, exploring the Dunning-Kruger effect.

We are excited for you to share your thoughts and join the discussion! Together, we can dive deeper into market insights within this genre and make even greater discoveries.


MAY 2024-#13

In this series of articles, data from renowned sources in the game industry such as the App Store, Mobile Action, Sensor Tower, AppTweak, and AppMagic are published. By closely monitoring market trends, genres, and valuable insights on grossing and revenue statistics, marketing directors, art directors, game marketing analysts, growth managers, and PR managers can significantly impact developing and enhancing their mobile games.

Top 10 grossing

Understanding market genres and gaming trends helps us find the key features and characteristics contributing to outstanding games: innovative ideas and immersive gameplay to rich environments and compelling mechanics.

By considering these points, generating substantial revenue is a lifelong ambition for every company in the mobile game industry. We have compiled a list of the 10 Hyper Casual games, to understand what drives chart-topping success.

Top 10 grossing

Deneb’s Game Prototypes Aligned with Top-Grossing Games

Here is a list of our prototypes, inspired by the top chart in the hyper-casual game category.

 Top 10 Games- May 2024 (Grossing)Genre Our prototypesThe game links
Pocket Champs: 3D Racing GamesRacing, Actionــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ 
Mob controlStrategy, ActionGang Rush https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.denebgames.gangrush
Alien invasionAction, ShooterDoctor Octopus https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.denebgames.drbingo&hl=en
Block Jam 3DPuzzleـــــــــــــــــ 
Tower WarStrategy, Tower DefenseHexa land https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.dg.hexaland
Wood Nuts & Bolts PuzzlePuzzleMatch Burner https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.denebgames.matchburner
Wood Nuts: Screw PuzzlePuzzleMatch the Rope 
Twisted TanglePuzzleMatch the Rope 
Traffic Escape!Puzzle, SimulationMetro Manager https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.denebgames.metromanager
My perfect Hotel:Simulation, ManagementOffice master https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.denebgames.officemaster&hl=en
Top Grossing Games and Our Prototypes

These games have significant fans and are particularly valuable due to their convenience: not only are they accessible every time and everywhere on any mobile device but also, they are easy to learn and instantly enjoyable.

Moreover, their development is cost-effective, making hyper-casual game marketing a smart investment for maximizing revenue in the mobile game market.

Deneb has produced several top games around the world, many of which are highly valuable. For instance, Doctor Octopus is similar to Alien Invasion, which is considered top downloads and revenues in the long term. Our game has achieved significant KPIs in the mobile game industry. Deneb is ready to invest in this game, and we are open to accepting support from other investors. Over the past two years, we have closely followed trends in hyper-casual mobile games and created prototypes based on these insights. This has given us valuable experience in understanding market dynamics that are both attractive and income-generating.

Here you can watch a creative video of this game, showcasing its “Then and Now” comparison and ongoing improvements.

Then and Now Doctor Octopus Aligned with Alien invasion

Deneb’s startup studio is committed to identifying opportunities and threats, actively seeking avenues to grow our game studio in Turkey, in the mobile game industry. we invite you to join our community If you are eager to provide enjoyable experiences for the audience and foster its growth. Together, we can achieve these ambitious goals and take pride in our collective success in the world of Casual games.

We encourage our potential investors to take the next step by filling out our investment form and becoming an integral part of our journey toward success.

conclusion:

Hyper-casual games are popular for their accessibility, simplicity, and cost-effectiveness. They are easy to learn, quickly enjoyable, and offer good returns on investment, making them appealing to both players and developers. These qualities ensure their continued success in the mobile gaming market. Additionally, as a company specializing in hyper-casual games, Deneb is excited to invite you to invest in this amazing industry, especially in our prototypes inspired by top hyper-casual games.

Prototypes by Deneb Games

In the world of game development prototyping lays the foundation for a project’s success or failure and it is about the market potential. Understanding these initial phases plays a significant role in nurturing the seed of an idea into a flourishing reality.

Companies in the early stages prototype for funding, while those in the middle stages prototype new ideas to sustain. Understanding the prototyping process can significantly impact the establishment of start-up companies. It is extra important for development teams and game designers, as their design choices will dictate where to allocate the studio budget in the form of art.

In this article, we will explore the essentials of prototyping including how to create a prototype, prototyping in Hyper-Casual games, golden points in this process, why it is necessary, when to advance prototype development, when to stop a prototype, and common failure reasons.

 Additionally, we will share experiences from Deneb Studio’s game development and insights from our case studies and CPI tests as a mobile game’s publisher.

Stages of game development

What is prototyping

In mobile game development, game prototyping is a process of exploring a game concept and testing game mechanics and functions, and playability whilst refining the core concept including developing hypotheses, designing experiments to test them, and analyzing the results and KPIs to make informed decisions

knowing more about improving the KPIs:

Categories of prototyping:

There are different types of prototyping for live game development, such as vertical, horizontal, rapid, and draft prototypes.

What is a Vertical prototype:

Vertical prototyping enables you to create a detailed version of one part of the game, such as a combat system, to evaluate its mechanics and functionality. It provides a test to show what a small part of the game will resemble in its final form. Vertical prototyping focuses on both visual experience and gameplay feel. Additionally, you can also do it without players, like making a video.

What is a horizontal prototype:

Create the whole game to test its main idea and user experience. This helps to quickly explore and check different features and interactions. It’s useful to get feedback early on, so you can refine the design before full-scale development.

What is a rapid prototype:

Rapid prototyping is designed to show that you can link the general fantasy of your game with actual mechanics that work. It comes into play when developers want to test different design elements and test new gameplay mechanics fast. In this way, Testing is quick, dirty, and focused.

You quickly iterate in as cheap a format as possible like; index cards, simple notes, lots of shortcuts, and band-aids to jump to the playable experience. You use tools like game engines, asset libraries, and scripting languages to rapidly build and evaluate different gameplay elements before committing to full production.

The rapid prototype is beyond the designer and maybe their friends. It is not perfect, but it is detailed enough for game developers to allow the game developers to test the main mechanics. It shouldn’t take too much time to set up or play, and usually, feedback is about the situations, agency, and outcomes.

What is a draft prototype:

Once the rapid prototyping phase is done and the team and designers feel the potential is there, the team will move on to the draft prototype. this prototype is created to pitch the game’s potential to fund the game’s development.

The main aim of the draft prototype is to show that the game can be appealing to the target audience. It usually includes high-quality art and style that would be in the final game, even though it does not require everything to be perfect yet. However, it should have enough to show that the team can deliver what they promised.

Together, these two prototypes (rapid and draft) explore the game’s mechanics, style, and aesthetic vision, and clarify the kind of audiences who will find the game appealing.

On top of these, let us dive into the prototyping process.

What does Prototyping do (Advantages of prototyping)

A prototype helps designers and engineers to experiment and test different aspects of a game, including its mechanics, designs, and functions. The main point of creating prototypes is to check feasibility and identify potential issues. Also, Prototyping helps refine ideas and maintain standards in game development.

Sometimes, ideas come straight from the creator’s mind without planning. In these cases, certain mechanics or shaders might be appealing and added as extra features in large projects, but not usually in Hyper casual games.

In Hyper-Casual games out of every 20 prototypes, typically one game is launched into the next stage. Team abilities matter as they may be experts in certain genres, leading to fewer errors.

For example, out of 80 prototypes, 5 games have demonstrated significant KPIs. (soft launch?)

You can see our prototypes there:

Deneb’s Prototypes

Read more about mobile game genres and market shares:

Consider that the idea in prototyping is really important, although implementation is more important. For instance, a well-implemented bad idea can fare better than a poorly implemented good one.

In every prototype, teams usually spend 10 to 14 days, but talented teams can be more efficient and faster. Hyper-casual games often prioritize quick development and broad distraction. When choosing a game genre, consider your team’s strengths.

By prototyping you can share your ideas with investors and managers, seeking valuable feedback for game improvement! Feedback is key for making your game even better. On top of this, 

take the feedback you received and use it to develop your game design, and mechanics to suit.

Develop your game design

How to create a prototype

Creating a game prototype is about building skills and proving ideas, not proving yourself. Here are some key steps to guide you through the process:

1- Concept design:

Start by clearly defining your game concept and identifying your target audience. This gives you a clear direction for your prototype. For mobile games, begin with your core fantasy vision. Come up with at least three game ideas and choose the simplest one to execute.

2- Set core UX:

Pinpoint the key gameplay elements that make your game enjoyable and engaging. Concentrate on the unique features that will distinguish your game from others in the same genre.

3-Build a prototype:

Select the prototyping approach that aligns best with your game’s requirements. Vertical prototyping is perfect for testing specific components of the game, whereas horizontal prototyping is ideal for assessing the overall concept. Develop a core design document that includes essential details such as the game’s story, mechanics, characters, and levels. It should be comprehensive enough to guide the prototyping process but not overly detailed.

4- Test your prototype:

There are different types of tests, such as market testing, QA testing, QC testing, and player testing. However, in this discussion, we will be observing players from their interactions. Playtests help us improve games. we ask questions, watch players, and learn from what happens.

Test your prototype with a small group from your target audience and gather feedback on what works and what doesn’t.

  • If the feedback is positive, move forward to the next step and start iterating.
  • If the feedback is negative, scrap the prototype and go back to step 1 to prototype the next idea.

Testing:

Testing is an important and stressful phase of game development because it aids in finding and resolving any faults or problems. In this phase, the development team extensively tests the game to find bugs, glitches, or crashes and works on the feature freeze process. They also gather testing feedback and make necessary adjustments, ensuring the game is stable and ready for release.

In this stage, good games are created through playtesting. Players help us improve games to explain ask questions, watch players, and learn from what happens. 

Test Prototyps

Maximizing the Effectiveness of Game Playtesting

By asking these essential questions at this stage, every company can enhance the development of their games:

Why?:

Set goals for your play tester. Good questions are like is my game fun?

Who?:

Pick testers based on what you want to know. Developers, friends, gaming experts, or beginners? 

Where?:

Choose a spot that fits your goals. Studio, lab, public place, at someone’s place, or online?

What?:

Choose a spot that fits your goals. Studio, lab, public place, at someone’s place, or online?

How?:

Figure out what you will do during the playtest. If you are there, stay neutral. Either talk out loud or use surveys. Pay attention to people’s faces for feelings.

Effectiveness of Game Playtesting

Testing stages:

Testing involves several stages, including:

Alpha testing:

Alpha testing happens after the initial development and internal testing. It’s the first time the game is tested by a larger group, including people not on the core development team. The main goals are to find bugs, get feedback on gameplay, and make sure all major features work correctly.

When: After internal testing and before the game is fully finished.

Who: Internal testers, developers, and sometimes a small group of external testers.

Focus: Finding bugs, refining features, and improving overall stability.

Beta Testing:

 Beta testing comes after alpha testing and is closer to the final release. It involves a wider audience, including external testers, to get more feedback and catch any remaining issues. This phase helps polish the game, balance gameplay, and ensure it works well on different devices.

When: After alpha testing, when the game is feature-complete but needs polishing.

Who: A larger group of external testers, sometimes including the general public.

Focus: Fixing final bugs, balancing gameplay, and optimizing performance.

In this stage, good games are created through playtesting. Players help us improve games by providing feedback, asking questions, and showing us how they play.

5- Refine and iterate:

Use feedback from your target audience to keep testing and refining your prototype. Continue this process until you have a version that is engaging and fun to play.

 you can see some case studies that have improved:

Then-now, Office Master game

6- Go for Launch or Not?:

Once you are confident that the prototype has validated your hypotheses, you are ready to progress to the next stage of the development process.

Prototyping process

Here, you can find more detailed information about the top 10 games in 2023 and 2024, including their downloads, grossing, and revenue for creating your ideas:

10 Top Downloads Hyper-Casual Games – Jan & Feb 2024- Google Play- App Magic:

10 Top Downloads-Jan & Feb 2024

10 Top Grossing Hyper-Casual Games – The year 2023- Google Play- App Magic:

10 Top Grossing- The year 2023

10 Top Revenue Q1- 2024 – Google Play- App Magic:

10 Top Revenue Q1- 2024

Prototyping for Hyper-casual

Requirements for hyper-casual and hybrid-casual games are different. Here, we’ll cover the checklist for hyper-casual games.

Prototyping for Hyper-casual

To-do List

– Although the main focus of your prototype should be the core mechanic, it should work well and run smoothly by considering the following points:

  • Integrate Analytics SDKs
  • Include about 7 minutes of core gameplay, although it is important to note that each sub-genre will have its benchmark. 
  • Ensure the core mechanic is polished
  • Make sure there are no bugs

– Approximately 14 days of development time

– The prototype should be visually attractive to users.

  • Juicy visuals
  • Quality and trendy assets
  • No pixelation on shades
  • Minimal UI and environment

– Your game should feel satisfying and include:

  • Basic visual and haptic feedback
  • Responsive feedback

No need for in-game stores and advanced progression.

No need for too polished art or a detailed environment.

Golden Points

Golden points in game prototyping

here we highlight some key considerations in this process.

1- Dream team:

Start by chatting with your colleagues to understand what your game is all about. It is all about setting clear goals together!

2- Simple to build:

Focus on just a few key gameplay elements or core mechanics at a time (around 2-3) for clarity and ease of management.

3- Core experience:

Focus on the core experience of your game during prototyping. Direct your efforts toward refining essential gameplay elements.

4- Fast to execute:

Prioritize speed in prototyping to accelerate your development cycle. It enables quicker validation of ideas and concepts.

Adopt a minimalist approach to prototyping, emphasizing the exploration of key ideas with the least amount of work required.

5- Minimalism:

6- Copywriting: 

Discover captivating words to engage your audience it is really to be summaries and attractive.

Read more about A-to-Z game copywriting:

7- Level up:

If your game mechanics are working smoothly, try adding new features and more mechanics. Build on what works and for success.

Why is game prototyping necessary?

Games are incredibly complex and they get more and more expensive to create the further along into development you progress. The process of prototyping can tell you about the following:

1- If your game idea is worth spending time on

A prototype might serve as a reality check for your game concept. By developing a simplified version of the game, you can test the core mechanics, entertainment factor, and interactions. This helps determine whether the game idea is worthwhile before investing resources and time. Once the core mechanics and gameplay have proven themselves, only then build out your game.

2- assess logical errors

Some game ideas look great on paper but ultimately end up failing when put to the test. Prototyping allows you to perform various tests to find any logical flaws.

3- save time

Getting started on your game concept idea can be attractive, but taking time to prototype your game idea can save time once you complete the game development.

As a result, you want to de-risk your game concept by experimenting with high-risk ideas as early on in the process as possible.


When develop prototype?

When to advance prototype development?

Determining when a prototype is good enough to move to the next step depends on its phase:

Rapid or rough prototype: this stage progresses once the game designer is convinced the game has the potential to be fun and engaging.

Draft prototype: it is ready when you have a few minutes of gameplay that can impress a publisher or investor, even without game design expertise.

Tech prototype: this phase is good to go when you have a clear understanding of the necessary code to support the feature, including tools, even if the code hasn’t been written yet.

Reasons for prototype failure

Make sure you avoid these mistakes when building a prototype:

1- Game idea:

Firstly, try to build your dream game first, even if it is a billion dollars when you never built anything before. If you can’t even build a game as simple as “Flappy Bird” yet, how can you build a grand vision that takes a team of experience game development to execute?

That is like trying to win your first professional boxing about before you ever even sparred in the gym.

secondly, selecting a suitable genre and timing for developing a trend in this industry is crucial. In this process, it is essential to analyze the market and track growth using AppMagic, Statista, and other Platforms.

Styles of top games over the years

2. Lack of attractiveness:

 Being attractive can include different factors such as gameplay, design, story, flow and etc. In some cases, the game may be simple but attractive. So, developers should consider these factors to ensure the game is engaging. To prevent failure in prototyping, the role of a game designer can make a great contribution.

Read more about creating an engaging game environment:

3. Low-performance production:

Firstly, copying ideas without considering their pros and cons can create some limitations that developers will not be able to model or improve that idea. For example, some games are boring and you do some activities which are really boring so it is highly likely to take a long time to launch these games. Adding attractive mechanics or changing the flow may help to develop their games. Considering the parameters of the game play always can make a great contribution to your games. If you have decided to do copy or clone as a developer it is really important to consider pones and cons.

Secondly, the core of gameplay mechanics does not work well. For example, in a shooting game, the swipe control process may not function properly and it will directly impact the experience of your audience and players.

When stop a prototyping game?

From the start, you should have a clear idea of the game’s vision or fantasy you are trying to create. Knowing when you stop can save your team’s time and energy.

1- fantasy mismatch:

 If you realize the game, you are building does not match the vision and no other idea comes to mind, it is time to stop the prototype and try a new one.

2- quality and feasibility:

 If your team can’t achieve the needed quality for funding or if the technical challenges are too big or expensive, it is time to have a serious discussion about whether to continue.

New developers often think their game idea is perfect. However, after launch, players are usually not impressed. This happens because the technology they used doesn’t support their game’s core mechanics. To avoid this, it is important to test a prototype before finalizing the game.

It is okay to go back to investors and admit there are problems. They might offer resources and guidance to help you overcome these challenges.

Our Case studies

Outsourcing prototyping brings numerous benefits, particularly when time is limited and success is uncertain. Specialized studios offer extensive experience, ensuring not just accurate testing but also faster and more cost-effective solutions.

We’ve tested over 80 prototypes and selected 5 for the next step. Creating and testing prototypes is crucial, especially for mobile games. We will share some of our achievements in this process.

For these prototypes, we were able to achieve the following In-App Ad impressions in 2023:

In-App Ad Impressions - 2023

For these prototypes, we anticipate achieving the following In-App Ad impressions for 2024:

In-App Ad Impressions - prediction 2024

We’re thrilled to share our achievements and predictions for our game playtime in 2024:

Game playtime 2024- prediction

Game Playtime – 2024 Prediction

Game downloads - prediction 2024

Game Downloads – 2024 Prediction

The prototyping process is valuable to us, and now we can test them with small teams. Since gameplay is a significant aspect of games, we focus on improving prototypes to enhance overall game quality.

In these small teams, if a prototype has room for improvement, we help refine their mobile games. I’ll share some examples from our experience to illustrate how we do it.

76% Improvement in ROAS – Q1-Q2 2024

Improvement in ROAS

Case study1: Doctor Octopus

Doctor Bingo in the process of prototyping is developed very much. We have enhanced both the economy and monetization of the game, resulting in significant improvements.

We have improved its economy and monetization. It has had significant changes. In the core of gameplay, we can see the sense of development.

The CPI of Dr. Octopus was $ 0.21, while its initial playtime was 723 seconds. Given the favorable CPI, we decided to focus on enhancing its gameplay. As a result, we boosted the playtime to 1058 seconds, a significant achievement that demonstrates the game’s potential for success.

8 Prototype Dr Bingo 2
An old version of Dr Octopus
Doctor Octopus 2
A new update of Dr Octopus

Because of this sense of progress, the user can see advertisements and progress, which makes the game economy better. For example, In the first stage, our score in this game was 2 out of 20. In the next stages, we improved our score to 8 out of 20.

Then-now, Doctor Octopus game

How we have improved the game’s economy

Through a step-by-step, the audience was gradually engaged by the gameplay, leading to increased playtime and addiction.

Step by step audiences have been encouraged by gameplay and gradually engaging users has led to increasing playtime and addiction to these games. This made the audience more willing to pay, either with time or money. Either, by considering the period and the audience’s behavior, the number of players and their playtime increased.

The integration of faster speed and enhanced visuals have played a key role, and we used trial and error with rewards and techniques to identify the optimal point for user engagement.

CPI (Cost Per Install) test

We run ads to conduct a basic campaign for your game over several days to assess its potential. Our primary focus is on the CPI results, but we also consider Day 1 retention and Average Session Length. The creative team requires 1-2 days to prepare the ads, and the CPI test itself takes 2-3 days. Depending on whether your game is hyper-casual or hybrid-casual, our expectations for the CPI test

For hyper-casual, our goal is to reach:

  • CPI (US) < $ 0.5
  • D1 retention > 35%
  • D3 retention > 10%
  • CTR> 5%

After implementing the strategies outlined in the article, we’ll be prepared to soft launch our games successfully.

Conclusion

Understanding the prototyping process in game development is very important for creating successful games. By mastering these stages, developers can efficiently test ideas, save resources, and enhance their game’s appeal. becoming a better prototype is a matter of experience. Become comfortable throwing away work and old ideas. Prototyping not only helps refine concepts but also aids in making informed decisions. Through our experiences at Deneb Studio, we have shared valuable lessons in this process.

By the way, as you are reading this post, if you have any questions or ideas, you can share them here.