Insights and Analysis
In previous article (part1), we analyzed AppMagic statics from 2021 to Q2 2024, highlighting a sharp increase in the Hyper-casual games download during 2022, followed by a fluctuated decline from Q3 2022 onwards. This trend has raised concerns about the future of Hyper-Casual games.
According our guess, this trend resembles the Dunning-Kruger effect, a phenomenon where individuals and companies don’t aware about this phycology phenomenon. in this article we will discuss about this phenomenon and possible similarity of this with growth and decrease of market in Hyper-Casual games.
What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?
This phenomenon first described by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999, influences various fields, including business, politics, and medicine. This phenomenon explains how individuals and companies with low ability at a task overestimate their skills, significantly impacting individuals and business, especially when launching new products or concepts.
This effect is caused by a complex combination of cognitive factors, primarily a lack of metacognition- the ability to reflect on one’s own thinking and understanding. This may also fail to recognize exciting risks, making suboptimal outcomes more likely.
For instance, the rise of digital currency and blockchain technology led to many new ventures. However, many of these businesses failed due to a lack of knowledge and overconfidence, often ignoring professional advice.
Dunning-Kruger in Hyper-Casual games
In this section, we will discuss that phenomena in decline of downloads of Hyper-Casual games, which has led to the perception that Hyper-casual is dead.
Statics from AppMagic show that during 2021, after to COVID-19 pandemic, users and players spent a significant amount of money on mobile games and Hyper-Casual games during home quarantine. On the other hand, many businesses shut down, leading to significant increase in the number of developers publishers and investors in Hyper-Casual games. The number of Hyper-Casual games released increased tenfold compared to previous year.
This surge reached to as the “peak mount stupid”. Due to uncontrolled growth, as seen in chart, downlow’s volume suddenly decreased (according to the data in part1) , like to a stock market crash. Subsequently, HC releases and downloads in Hyper-Casual games decreased sharply, leading to what is known as the “valley of despair and disappointment”. This has led some to assert that Hyper-Casual is dying. In this phase, every aspect seems adverse, and publishers or developers may claim that this genre is neither useful nor profitable. This caused many unaware developers to abandon their games, although, according to data from AppMagic, revenue has shown stable growth.
Future Outlook
As mentioned in our previous article, it is likely that the Hyper-Casual market would experience stable share, in line with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
combining this trend with the Dunning-Kruger theory suggests that the genre will eventually experience market sustainability. If developers become aware of their deficiencies of development of their games, and continue in this area, growth will continue its gentle upward trend. It is unlikely that the trend (Hyper-Casual games) will disappear entirely.
This behavior is social trend in many phenomena and the frequency of several other phenomena, such as COVID-19, has led multiplying the frequency of this story.
Conclusion
In major markets, various phenomena can significantly impact market share. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for evaluating trends, predicting challenges, and safeguarding against potential issues. It seems during COVID-19 period, players delved deeply into the Hyper-Casual games because the changes of their lifestyle and this led to a thrilling in Hype-Casual games.
Meanwhile, investors and operators may intentionally or unintentionally influence these events to steer the market in their desired direction, as seen with companies like Voodoo, which declared that Hyper-Casual games are dead.
This story is reminiscent of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which would eventually reach maturity and growth. It is likely that the market share of hyper-casual games will return to its steady growth trend. However, it is more likely that this day is not today.
In this series of articles, we will explore various topics in each part to address the question of whether Hyper-Casual is dead? In future articles, we will also examine the market share of Hyper-Casual games in the mobile gaming market.
Share your thoughts and join the discussion to make even deeper discoveries. according to these data is it your opinion that Hyper-Casual is dead and have lost their appeal?